A corporate occupation: Trump's plan is no guarantee the Gaza hell will end
By placing the enclave into the hands of a 'Board of Peace', Trump and Blair are intentionally trying to strip Gaza of its Palestinian identity
Over the next few days, Hamas will be studying Donald Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza.
The proposal, already approved by Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, would disarm the Palestinian movement and end its presence in the Gaza Strip.
In fact, it will take Gaza completely out of Palestinian hands.
There are a number of points that will be welcomed by large sections of Palestinian society.
The deal would secure the release of 250 prisoners with life sentences, as well 1,700 Palestinians from Gaza who have been detained in horrifying conditions since October 2023.
The text even notes that “all women and children detained in that context” would be released - suggesting an admission of guilt that they have been held deliberately as bargaining chips.
It notes that if all sides agree to the deal, “full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip”. That aid would enter, without interference, through the UN and its agencies, the Red Crescent, and other institutions “not associated in any manner with either party”.
That would appear to spell the end of the highly controversial US- and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
Again, the wording acknowledges Israeli violations, clearly suggesting that aid was not being allowed in sufficiently and that it was being distributed by an organisation associated with Israel.
But there is significant wiggle room for Israel in much of the agreement, due to the ambiguous and vague talk of timelines.
An "International Stabilisation Force" (ISF) will be deployed in Gaza. Meanwhile, the Israeli military “will withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarisation” to be agreed upon between Israel, the ISF, the US and global guarantors.
What those milestones and timeframes will be is anyone’s guess at this point.
“There is no plan in the sense of something sufficiently substantive and detailed that could be implemented - no granularity around the specifics of timelines and maps,” Daniel Levy, a British-Israeli analyst and former peace negotiator, told MEE.
“That is by design. It allows Israel to blame the other side when either a deal is not reached or when Netanyahu decides to desist from implementing and resumes the genocide assault.”
Annelle Sheline, a former US State Department official who resigned over the Gaza war, agreed that the plan was intentionally vague and recalled the failed 1993 Oslo Accords.
“Furthermore, similar to Oslo, there are no penalties (for Israel) if it fails to adhere to the terms. Therefore, Israel has no incentive to ensure that it complies with the agreement, a standard feature of American proposals for 'resolving' the conflict,” she told MEE.
Notably unlike the previous ceasefire deal in January, in which Israel was compelled to withdraw to a perimeter area 900 metres around Gaza, under Trump’s plan, Israel will initially occupy large cities such as Rafah, Khan Younis, Jabalia and Beit Hanoun.
An end to ethnic cleansing?
When it comes to the displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, there appears to be a shift in Trump’s language.
While in February he spoke of “owning Gaza” and expelling its inhabitants to make way for the “Riviera of the Middle East”, the language has now softened.
The proposal states: “No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.”
It adds that people will be encouraged to stay in Gaza, and will be offered the opportunity “to build a better life”.
Analysts are sceptical as to whether this will be the reality.
Abed Abou Shhadeh, a Palestinian political analyst based in Jaffa, told MEE that part of the reason that forcible displacement was not spelled out was because Israel could not find a third country to house them.
“In case they do find a third country, they will continue pushing more Palestinians out,” he said. “Whether that’s through a deal, or people leaving for humanitarian reasons.”
Abou Shhadeh notes that Israel has invested a lot of time, including by setting up a government agency, into what it describes as the “voluntary departure” plan.
“People in the West underestimate the seriousness of Israelis with its plan to expel Palestinians,” he said, adding that plans to destroy Gaza’s tunnel infrastructure - hinted at in the proposal - could make the enclave even more unlivable.
Qossay Hamed, an expert on Hamas and academic at Al-Quds Open University in Ramallah, agrees.
“The plan doesn’t include displacement of Gaza but the inhuman conditions might force people to leave,” he told MEE. “The Israelis and Americans know Gaza is no longer suitable for human living.”
'For Blair, everything is about GDP and economics'
As for future governance, the plan would see an international board, dubbed the “Board of Peace”, take over Gaza in a transitional period.
Trump would head up the board with the support of Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, and other heads of states and figures.
A leaked report published by Haaretz on Monday indicated that the board would be made up of billionaires and businesspeople at the top, while highly vetted "neutral" Palestinian administrators would sit at the bottom.
“It reads more like a charter for a reborn Dutch East India company than a document of the 21st century,” said Levy.
“Remember it’s a plan produced without consulting either of the Palestinian factions who have to agree to this ceasefire," he added, in reference to Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, which administers some of the occupied West Bank and is slated to eventually take over Gaza following "reforms".
Levy described Trump appointing himself as head of the "peace board" with Blair as his “underling” would be the “stuff of comedy” - if it didn’t seal the fate of so many lives.
The language used in both Trump’s plan and the Blair proposal reflects that of a business, with talk of boards, a chairman, and a CEO, rather than of a country or territory
Abou Shhadeh said this is a deliberate attempt to strip Palestinian history.
“For Blair, everything is about GDP and economics,” he said. “It’s as if there isn’t any national history, narrative or livelihood. It doesn’t exist in Blair’s lexicon.”
He said for that reason, not only Hamas, but even the PA (in its current format) were not wanted as part of this plan: “They don't want any political entity, they want corporations.”
Abou Shhadeh said that such a reality was a tried and tested method in US history - deliberately exploiting vulnerable people to accept conditions they wouldn’t otherwise have.
“Nobody has the moral right to judge Palestinians who just want a ceasefire,” he said. “The Americans and Israelis know this.”
Sheline added that Blair should know all about this, given his involvement in the Iraq war.
“There is a reason that the Coalition Provisional Authority, established by the US to govern Iraq after it overthrew Saddam Hussein, was never viewed as legitimate by Iraqis, nor were the successor interim governments - these were all viewed as puppet governments set up by the United States,” she said.
She added that foreign occupation, as the plan posits, “will always provoke resistance”.
“Given that the conditions set up provide for ongoing occupation and no form of justice or restitution for the abuses and violence that Palestinians have been subjected to for decades, to say nothing of the genocide of the past two years, it is a complete fantasy to imagine that resistance will cease to exist in Gaza,” she said.
Towards the end of the 20-point plan, an interfaith dialogue is suggested that would be held to promote peaceful co-existence “to try and change mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis”.
Meanwhile, while acknowledging the Palestinians' will for an independent state, nothing is tying the Israelis to helping establish one.
The appetite for peaceful co-existence and some form of Palestinian statehood among Israelis is low, particularly in its government. Netanyahu has repeatedly promised to scupper any chance of a Palestinian state being set up.
“There has been little to no discussion of the need to 'de-radicalise' Israeli society, the majority of which remains in favour of the genocidal policies of mass murder and starvation that their government has inflicted upon Palestinians in Gaza,” said Sheline.